This was a two-speed week. A softer dollar and a firmer bid for bullion pulled precious metals higher, while crude gave back ground and the base complex split rather than moving as a bloc — the signature of physical supply stories reasserting over a single macro driver. Note that US futures markets were closed on Friday 3 July for the Independence Day holiday, so crude, precious and the dollar reference Thursday 2 July’s settlement; LME base metals reference Friday’s cash close.
The dollar did the heavy lifting. DXY eased 0.56% to 100.86 after softer US jobs data and cooler inflation risk trimmed the market’s expectations for further Fed tightening — a clean tailwind for dollar-denominated metal. Gold rose 2.04% to $4,112.70/oz and silver outperformed, up 3.92% to $60.64/oz, nudging the gold–silver ratio down to ~68 from ~69 as the higher-beta metal led.
Crude was the week’s soft spot. Brent fell 4.60% to $71.80/bbl and WTI 4.49% to $68.69/bbl as sluggish Chinese demand indicators and a comfortably supplied physical market outweighed any residual geopolitical premium. With OPEC+ barrels flowing freely and inventories building, the marginal buyer stepped back — a demand-side story rather than an FX one, since the dollar was falling at the same time.
Base metals refused to trade as one. Tin gained 3.33% to $52,000/t and zinc 2.49% to $3,546/t on tight concentrate supply, while copper was effectively flat (+0.09% to $13,299/t) even as LME stocks drew to 318,900t from ~336,000t a week earlier. Aluminium (−2.65%), nickel (−2.75%) and lead (−1.54%) softened on ample supply. The dispersion — winners and losers side by side rather than a uniform move — points to metal-specific balances doing the work, not a common financial flow.
For the week ahead, watch (i) US labour and inflation data, which set the dollar’s next leg and, through it, the direction for precious metals; (ii) Chinese activity indicators and OPEC+ signalling, the swing factors for whether crude stabilises or extends its slide; and (iii) LME inventory trends in copper and zinc, where visible stock draws are testing whether the supply-tightness thesis can pull prices higher against a mixed macro.
| Commodity | Latest | MoM | 3-M | 6-M | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent$/bbl | 85.40 | ▼ -20.6% | ▼ -17.6% | ▲ +36.2% | ▲ +19.4% |
| Dubai$/bbl | 77.70 | ▼ -18.0% | ▼ -15.5% | ▲ +25.3% | ▲ +13.4% |
| WTI$/bbl | 81.90 | ▼ -17.4% | ▼ -10.2% | ▲ +41.5% | ▲ +21.3% |
| Crude oil, avg$/bbl | 81.70 | ▼ -18.6% | ▼ -14.5% | ▲ +34.2% | ▲ +18.2% |
| Coal, Australian$/mt | 138.50 | ▲ +1.2% | ▼ -0.1% | ▲ +28.6% | ▲ +27.1% |
| Coal, S. African$/mt | 96.30 | ▲ +0.7% | ▲ +2.7% | ▲ +5.9% | ▲ +2.7% |
| Natural gas, US$/mmbtu | 3.10 | ▲ +6.9% | ▲ +0.0% | ▼ -27.9% | ▲ +3.3% |
| Natural gas, Europe$/mmbtu | 15.20 | ▼ -6.2% | ▼ -15.1% | ▲ +60.0% | ▲ +22.6% |
| LNG, Japan$/mmbtu | 12.80 | ▼ -0.8% | ▲ +12.3% | ▲ +13.3% | ▲ +4.9% |
| Commodity | Latest | MoM | 3-M | 6-M | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phosphate rock$/mt | 156.90 | ▲ +2.9% | ▲ +2.9% | ▲ +2.9% | ▲ +2.9% |
| DAP$/mt | 783.80 | ▲ +1.9% | ▲ +19.1% | ▲ +24.9% | ▲ +9.6% |
| TSP$/mt | 735.60 | ▲ +3.1% | ▲ +31.8% | ▲ +36.6% | ▲ +14.7% |
| Urea$/mt | 453.10 | ▼ -41.2% | ▼ -37.6% | ▲ +15.4% | ▲ +7.8% |
| Potassium chloride$/mt | 402.50 | ▼ -0.6% | ▲ +5.8% | ▲ +12.3% | ▲ +10.9% |
| Commodity | Latest | MoM | 3-M | 6-M | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aluminum$/mt | 3,439 | ▼ -6.2% | ▲ +2.0% | ▲ +19.6% | ▲ +36.1% |
| Copper$/mt | 13,552 | ▲ +0.1% | ▲ +8.2% | ▲ +15.0% | ▲ +37.8% |
| Iron ore$/dmtu | 100.80 | ▼ -7.2% | ▼ -3.5% | ▼ -3.6% | ▲ +9.2% |
| Lead$/mt | 1,946 | ▼ -2.3% | ▲ +3.6% | ▲ +0.3% | ▼ -1.4% |
| Nickel$/mt | 17,588 | ▼ -6.5% | ▲ +3.0% | ▲ +18.2% | ▲ +17.2% |
| Tin$/mt | 53,037 | ▼ -1.0% | ▲ +12.1% | ▲ +28.7% | ▲ +63.0% |
| Zinc$/mt | 3,539 | ▲ +1.6% | ▲ +11.2% | ▲ +11.7% | ▲ +33.3% |
| Commodity | Latest | MoM | 3-M | 6-M | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold$/troy oz | 4,228 | ▼ -7.8% | ▼ -12.9% | ▼ -1.9% | ▲ +26.1% |
| Silver$/troy oz | 66.70 | ▼ -14.5% | ▼ -14.4% | ▲ +7.1% | ▲ +85.3% |
| Platinum$/troy oz | 1,726 | ▼ -13.6% | ▼ -15.6% | ▼ -8.8% | ▲ +38.0% |
| Commodity | Latest | MoM | 3-M | 6-M | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cocoa$/kg | 4.40 | ▲ +5.8% | ▲ +35.8% | ▼ -23.9% | ▼ -47.6% |
| Coffee, Arabica$/kg | 6.79 | ▼ -2.3% | ▼ -7.9% | ▼ -19.2% | ▼ -15.2% |
| Coffee, Robusta$/kg | 3.73 | ▲ +1.6% | ▼ -4.4% | ▼ -11.2% | ▼ -13.9% |
| Cotton, A Index$/kg | 1.90 | ▼ -6.4% | ▲ +11.8% | ▲ +16.6% | ▲ +9.8% |
| Rubber, RSS3$/kg | 2.86 | ▲ +6.3% | ▲ +19.7% | ▲ +38.8% | ▲ +32.4% |
| Rubber, TSR20$/kg | 2.25 | ▲ +1.8% | ▲ +15.4% | ▲ +29.3% | ▲ +39.8% |
Crude. Brent and WTI futures front-month settlements from ICE / NYMEX via Yahoo Finance, 5Y daily history with the prior Friday’s close as the weekly reference.
Precious metals. COMEX active-month gold and silver futures settlements via Yahoo Finance.
Base metals. LME official cash settlement for Cu, Al, Zn, Ni, Sn and Pb, sourced from Westmetall (5Y daily history).
USD. ICE Dollar Index (DXY) futures, daily close, via Yahoo Finance.
Pink Sheet. World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook — monthly USD spot prices across energy, metals, fertilisers, precious metals and softs.
Refreshed every Monday morning using the prior Friday’s close. This week, US futures markets were closed on Friday 3 July for Independence Day, so crude, precious and DXY reference Thursday 2 July’s settlement; LME base metals reference Friday 3 July’s cash.
Every weekly call is built around three lenses:
(i) Supply vs. demand. The physical balance — mine output, OPEC+ discipline, refining margins, smelter restarts, inventories — sets the medium-term anchor.
(ii) Physical vs. financial flows. Positioning, ETF holdings, COT data and term structure tell us where the marginal price is being set and whether moves are sustainable.
(iii) USD cross-check. Every commodity is quoted in dollars; we always read the move against DXY to separate genuine commodity strength from FX translation.
All prices are in US dollars.
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