Weekly takeaway
The macro tape this week pivoted on a familiar dialectic: energy supply tightness versus a firming dollar. Crude pushed sharply higher – Brent up +7.87% to $109.26/bbl, WTI up +10.48% to $105.42/bbl – as physical fundamentals (refining margins, freight, distillate cracks) and renewed supply anxiety overwhelmed the dollar bid. Precious metals went the other way: Gold gave back -3.49% and Silver -4.02%, with the DXY adding +1.46% to 99.27 doing most of the work alongside a backup in real yields.
Base metals were mixed but lean constructive on the demand side. Copper held above $13,500/MT (LME cash) – ytd +8.39% – and aluminium extended its grind higher on power-cost dynamics and tight Western inventories. Nickel and tin both gave back, the former on continued Indonesian supply elasticity, the latter on softer semis demand cues from East Asia. The gold-silver ratio drifted up to 59.04, still well below the post-2020 average – suggesting silver's relative strength regime remains intact even after this week's correction.
The cross-asset read: the inflation-sensitive tail of the commodity complex is being led by hydrocarbons while the financial-flow tail (precious metals) takes a dollar-driven breather. For institutional allocators, the relative-value frame favours producers and pipelines over bullion ETFs at the margin, with copper and aluminium remaining the cleanest long-cycle structural calls.
Brent at $109.26/bbl, WTI at $105.42/bbl – a punchy week. The Brent-WTI spread held near $4, consistent with tight US Gulf logistics and refined-product demand. Time spreads are in backwardation in both grades, signalling physical scarcity at the front of the curve.
Gold $4,555.80/oz, Silver $77.16/oz. The pullback reflects a stronger dollar and a partial unwind of haven length. The structural bull case (central-bank accumulation, deficit financing, geopolitical hedging demand) is not impaired by a 3-4% week. Silver remains the cleaner industrial-PM hybrid play.
Physical flows vs. financial flows. Central-bank gold buying remains a structural bid that the price action does not always reveal week-to-week; that physical underbid is what limits the depth of corrections like this one. ETF and futures positioning, by contrast, swing with the dollar and real-rate cycle – which explains the size of this week's move.
Silver. The metal continues to look like the cleanest industrial-precious hybrid: photovoltaic demand is structural, supply elasticity is limited, and the ratio is materially below its five-year average. We treat the week's pullback as a positioning unwind, not a regime change.
Copper held above $13,500/MT, aluminium broke higher. The cleanest demand pulse remains grid, automotive (BEV) and AI-related electrification. LME stocks remain historically lean. Nickel and tin gave back on supply and softer East-Asia tech read-through. We continue to favour the long end of the curve in Cu and Al.
DXY at 99.27, +1.46% on the week. Higher rates differentials and risk-off into bonds drove the bid. The dollar is the single largest cross-asset variable for precious metals and a meaningful headwind for industrial metals priced in USD – though physical fundamentals are dominating in the base complex this cycle.
Direction-of-correlation matters. When DXY rallies and crude rallies in parallel (this week), the dominant driver is physical supply – not financial flows. When DXY rallies and crude falls, demand or positioning is in control. The first regime is much harder to fade.
Precious metals remain the cleanest dollar play in the complex; base metals are decoupling from DXY in this electrification-led cycle.
Watch: real yields. A 10-15bp backup in TIPS yields is enough to keep precious metals soft. We need real yields to roll over again for the gold rally to extend.
| Commodity | Latest | MoM | 3-M | 6-M | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Crude oil, Brent $/bbl | 120.42 | +16.14% | +80.37% | +86.27% | +77.76% |
Crude oil, Dubai $/bbl | 92.69 | +0.88% | +45.03% | +44.15% | +38.57% |
Crude oil, WTI $/bbl | 98.63 | +8.19% | +63.62% | +63.92% | +56.36% |
Crude oil, average $/bbl | 103.91 | +8.72% | +63.25% | +64.84% | +57.67% |
Coal, Australian $/mt | 130.92 | -5.54% | +19.26% | +21.79% | +32.77% |
Coal, South African ** $/mt | 94.78 | +1.01% | +4.66% | +3.50% | -0.81% |
Natural gas, US $/mmbtu | 2.768 | -9.51% | -63.50% | -13.44% | -18.60% |
Natural gas, Europe $/mmbtu | 15.41 | -13.94% | +31.09% | +41.54% | +32.96% |
Liquefied natural gas, Japan $/mmbtu | 11.67 | +2.19% | +1.62% | +5.13% | -7.94% |
| Commodity | Latest | MoM | 3-M | 6-M | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Phosphate rock $/mt | 152.50 | +0.00% | +0.00% | +0.00% | +0.00% |
DAP $/mt | 725.25 | +10.18% | +17.13% | -3.81% | +14.21% |
TSP $/mt | 658.13 | +17.92% | +24.36% | -0.06% | +32.69% |
Urea $/mt | 856.88 | +18.09% | +106.28% | +117.26% | +121.48% |
Potassium chloride ** $/mt | 401.25 | +5.42% | +9.63% | +13.99% | +14.03% |
| Commodity | Latest | MoM | 3-M | 6-M | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aluminum $/mt | 3,599.85 | +6.73% | +14.58% | +28.88% | +51.79% |
Copper $/mt | 12,950.96 | +3.37% | -0.47% | +20.59% | +41.13% |
Iron ore, cfr spot $/dmtu | 106.05 | +1.53% | +0.49% | +2.43% | +9.06% |
Lead $/mt | 1,929.85 | +2.75% | -3.24% | -1.92% | +1.39% |
Nickel $/mt | 17,961.60 | +5.18% | +1.09% | +19.01% | +18.85% |
Tin $/mt | 48,805.89 | +3.13% | -1.48% | +35.53% | +49.87% |
Zinc $/mt | 3,363.81 | +5.71% | +4.70% | +6.72% | +28.31% |
| Commodity | Latest | MoM | 3-M | 6-M | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gold $/troy oz | 4,721.42 | -2.76% | -0.66% | +16.34% | +46.74% |
Silver $/troy oz | 75.86 | -2.59% | -17.60% | +53.44% | +135.41% |
Platinum $/troy oz | 2,027.66 | -0.90% | -16.69% | +25.51% | +111.48% |
| Commodity | Latest | MoM | 3-M | 6-M | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cocoa $/kg | 3.397 | +4.80% | -31.68% | -42.94% | -58.32% |
Coffee, Arabica $/kg | 7.302 | -0.93% | -8.99% | -17.97% | -15.44% |
Coffee, Robusta $/kg | 3.630 | -6.86% | -14.48% | -23.44% | -33.09% |
Cotton, A Index $/kg | 1.905 | +11.95% | +16.00% | +13.71% | +10.26% |
Rubber, RSS3 $/kg | 2.506 | +4.81% | +16.92% | +25.07% | +17.91% |
Rubber, TSR20 ** $/kg | 2.056 | +5.18% | +11.54% | +20.10% | +20.47% |
Refresh: Monday morning, using the prior Friday's close as the reference date. This week's reference is 15 May 2026.
Crude oil & precious metals. Continuous front-month futures: Brent (BZ=F), WTI (CL=F), Gold (GC=F), Silver (SI=F), retrieved from the Yahoo Finance chart API. Five years of daily history are pulled each week to keep the long-cycle chart consistent across editions.
Base metals. LME cash settlement from Westmetall (Cu, Sn, Pb, Zn, Al, Ni). Five years of daily history.
USD. ICE U.S. Dollar Index (DX-Y.NYB).
Pink Sheet. World Bank Commodities Price Data (Pink Sheet) monthly XLSX, latest available print.
Three lenses every week:
1. Supply vs. demand. Curve shape (contango/backwardation), inventories, refinery margins, and freight tell us what physical balance is doing. We weight these more than headline news.
2. Physical vs. financial flows. Cash-settlement, ETF holdings, futures positioning, and OI tell us whether financial money is pulling or pushing the spot price.
3. USD cross-check. The dollar is the single largest cross-commodity variable. We always check whether a price move "should have" happened on the basis of DXY alone – the answer is often what tells us what the real driver is.
All prices are in US dollars.
From single-commodity deep-dives to bespoke cross-asset positioning notes – scoped per engagement.
Supply. Forward curves are in backwardation in both Brent and WTI. That structure is consistent with tight prompt-month physical supply and is the most reliable mechanical signal that paper longs are following barrels rather than positioning for them. Refinery margins remain healthy on distillate, supporting throughput, which pulls crude demand forward.
Demand. Asia gasoline cracks have firmed; gasoil cracks are holding. Implied US product demand prints have improved week-on-week. We are not yet seeing the demand fatigue that typically caps Brent in a $105-115 zone.
USD cross-check. The dollar's 1.46% weekly bid would, all else equal, be a $1-2 headwind for Brent. The fact crude moved up 7.87% on the week tells you physical and supply factors are clearly dominant. That is unusual and worth noting for cross-asset positioning.