This was a broad, one-directional week — everything fell except the dollar. The catalyst was crude: with tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz freely, Gulf exports rebuilding toward roughly three-quarters of pre-conflict volumes and Saudi loadings ramping at Ras Tanura, the market shifted decisively from pricing the risk of supply loss to pricing the reality of its return. Brent fell 9.84% to $71.99/bbl — its lowest since late February and the steepest weekly drop in a month — while WTI dropped 9.62% to $69.23/bbl.
The dollar was the amplifier. DXY firmed 0.51% to 101.36 as stickier US inflation pushed expectations toward further Fed tightening, turning FX into a genuine headwind across every dollar-denominated contract. That backdrop hit precious metals hard: gold fell 3.44% to $4,078.70/oz and silver tumbled 10.62% to $59.22/oz, its industrial leg compounding the bullion weakness and lifting the gold–silver ratio to ~69 from ~64.
Base metals offered no shelter. The synchronised move — oil, silver and the industrial complex all lower together while only the dollar rose — is the signature of financial-flow deleveraging rather than any single physical shock. Aluminium fell 6.94% to $3,164/t, nickel 5.80% to $16,570/t and tin 5.40% to $50,325/t. Copper was again the relative outperformer, down just 1.80% to $13,287/t, cushioned by genuine mine-supply tightness, with zinc (3.47%) and lead (2.84%) softer.
For the week ahead, watch (i) whether a durable US–Iran framework is signed — the swing factor for how much further the residual crude premium can fall now that the physical reopening is largely priced; (ii) US inflation and Fed communication, which set the dollar’s next leg and, with it, the pressure on the cyclical complex; and (iii) whether gold finds a floor as banks trim targets, or whether the official-sector bid that anchored it through the spring reasserts on the dip.
| Commodity | Latest | MoM | 3-M | 6-M | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude oil, Brent$/bbl | 107.54 | ▼ -10.7% | ▲ +51.2% | ▲ +69.1% | ▲ +67.5% |
| Crude oil, Dubai$/bbl | 94.67 | ▲ +2.1% | ▲ +38.5% | ▲ +48.3% | ▲ +50.2% |
| Crude oil, WTI$/bbl | 99.09 | ▲ +0.5% | ▲ +53.5% | ▲ +66.3% | ▲ +62.4% |
| Crude oil, average$/bbl | 100.43 | ▼ -3.3% | ▲ +47.7% | ▲ +61.1% | ▲ +60.0% |
| Coal, Australian$/mt | 136.86 | ▲ +4.5% | ▲ +15.6% | ▲ +21.5% | ▲ +31.1% |
| Coal, South African$/mt | 95.56 | ▲ +0.8% | ▲ +4.8% | ▲ +4.4% | ▲ +1.3% |
| Natural gas, US$/mmbtu | 2.93 | ▲ +5.8% | ▼ -18.8% | ▼ -22.7% | ▼ -6.1% |
| Natural gas, Europe$/mmbtu | 16.17 | ▲ +4.9% | ▲ +43.9% | ▲ +55.2% | ▲ +38.7% |
| Liquefied natural gas, Japan$/mmbtu | 15.77 | ▲ +0.8% | ▲ +39.3% | ▲ +41.4% | ▲ +28.0% |
| Commodity | Latest | MoM | 3-M | 6-M | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phosphate rock$/mt | 152.50 | ▲ +0.0% | ▲ +0.0% | ▲ +0.0% | ▲ +0.0% |
| DAP$/mt | 769.50 | ▲ +6.1% | ▲ +22.8% | ▲ +8.6% | ▲ +15.0% |
| TSP$/mt | 713.50 | ▲ +8.4% | ▲ +33.1% | ▲ +12.1% | ▲ +31.8% |
| Urea$/mt | 770.50 | ▼ -10.1% | ▲ +63.2% | ▲ +88.3% | ▲ +96.6% |
| Potassium chloride$/mt | 405.00 | ▲ +0.9% | ▲ +8.7% | ▲ +14.5% | ▲ +11.7% |
| Commodity | Latest | MoM | 3-M | 6-M | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aluminum$/mt | 3,666 | ▲ +1.8% | ▲ +19.6% | ▲ +30.0% | ▲ +49.7% |
| Copper$/mt | 13,543 | ▲ +4.6% | ▲ +4.6% | ▲ +25.3% | ▲ +42.1% |
| Iron ore, cfr spot$/dmtu | 108.64 | ▲ +2.4% | ▲ +9.9% | ▲ +6.0% | ▲ +12.0% |
| Lead$/mt | 1,991 | ▲ +3.2% | ▲ +3.9% | ▼ -0.4% | ▲ +1.7% |
| Nickel$/mt | 18,806 | ▲ +4.7% | ▲ +9.5% | ▲ +28.2% | ▲ +22.5% |
| Tin$/mt | 53,563 | ▲ +9.7% | ▲ +10.0% | ▲ +44.9% | ▲ +67.5% |
| Zinc$/mt | 3,482 | ▲ +3.5% | ▲ +4.8% | ▲ +9.6% | ▲ +31.7% |
| Commodity | Latest | MoM | 3-M | 6-M | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold$/troy oz | 4,587 | ▼ -2.8% | ▼ -8.6% | ▲ +12.2% | ▲ +38.6% |
| Silver$/troy oz | 78.01 | ▲ +2.8% | ▼ -4.8% | ▲ +54.7% | ▲ +138.1% |
| Platinum$/troy oz | 1,998 | ▼ -1.4% | ▼ -6.5% | ▲ +27.7% | ▲ +104.0% |
| Commodity | Latest | MoM | 3-M | 6-M | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cocoa$/kg | 4.16 | ▲ +22.4% | ▲ +15.9% | ▼ -25.8% | ▼ -53.7% |
| Coffee, Arabica$/kg | 6.95 | ▼ -4.8% | ▼ -1.8% | ▼ -23.2% | ▼ -20.8% |
| Coffee, Robusta$/kg | 3.67 | ▲ +1.1% | ▼ -7.3% | ▼ -22.6% | ▼ -30.0% |
| Cotton, A Index$/kg | 2.03 | ▲ +6.8% | ▲ +24.5% | ▲ +22.3% | ▲ +18.0% |
| Rubber, RSS3$/kg | 2.69 | ▲ +7.2% | ▲ +19.0% | ▲ +32.5% | ▲ +22.8% |
| Rubber, TSR20$/kg | 2.21 | ▲ +7.3% | ▲ +14.5% | ▲ +29.2% | ▲ +30.0% |
Crude. Brent and WTI futures front-month settlements from ICE / NYMEX via Yahoo Finance, 5Y daily history with prior Friday’s close as the weekly reference.
Precious metals. COMEX active-month gold and silver futures settlements via Yahoo Finance.
Base metals. LME official cash settlement for Cu, Al, Zn, Ni, Sn and Pb, sourced from Westmetall (5Y daily history).
USD. ICE Dollar Index (DXY) futures, daily close, via Yahoo Finance.
Pink Sheet. World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook — monthly USD spot prices across energy, metals, fertilisers, precious metals and softs.
Refreshed every Monday morning using the prior Friday’s close.
Every weekly call is built around three lenses:
(i) Supply vs. demand. The physical balance — mine output, OPEC+ discipline, refining margins, smelter restarts, inventories — sets the medium-term anchor.
(ii) Physical vs. financial flows. Positioning, ETF holdings, COT data and term structure tell us where the marginal price is being set and whether moves are sustainable.
(iii) USD cross-check. Every commodity is quoted in dollars; we always read the move against DXY to separate genuine commodity strength from FX translation.
All prices are in US dollars.
Bespoke coverage across crude, metals, agri and softs — scoped to your portfolio or treasury mandate.
