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RESEARCH DESK AS A SERVICE

Economics & policy research for decision-ready insight.

Macroeconomic forecasting, monetary and fiscal policy advisory, commodities and currency analysis – built for central banks, banking groups, sovereign-linked institutions and asset allocators worldwide. Global coverage spanning Americas, Europe, Asia Pacific, Middle East and Africa.

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5yr

Forecasting models

Short-, medium- and long-term horizons

Multi

Country diagnostics

Global coverage – developed and emerging markets

100%

Scenario-led

Base / upside / stress modelling

Senior

Macroeconomists

Domain experts in-house, not outsourced

FIVE CORE SERVICE AREAS

Five core service areas – one macroeconomic desk.

Engineered for central banks, sovereign-linked institutions, asset allocators and financial groups globally. Below: the four pillars we deliver against, plus selected engagement examples from across our worldwide client book.

01 I FORECASTING

Macroeconomic Forecasting

GDP forecasting across annual, medium-term and long-term horizons; inflation, employment and productivity analysis; sectoral contribution and growth decomposition (demand- and supply-side); scenario-based economic outlooks. Built for credit committees, asset-allocation strategy and sovereign-rating dialogues.

5 yr

Medium-term forecasting models

3-scenario

Base / upside / stress outlooks

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What this covers

  • Annual GDP forecasting
  • Medium-term forecasting
  • Long-term growth modelling
  • Inflation analysis
  • Employment & productivity
  • Sectoral contribution
  • Demand / supply decomposition
  • Scenario-based outlooks

02 I REGIONAL RESEARCH

Region-Specific Research

Global economic outlook with cross-border spillover analysis; regional economic integration and trade-corridor mapping (NAFTA/USMCA, EU, ASEAN, Mercosur, GCC, African Continental Free Trade Area); country diagnostic reports; peer-economy benchmarking; political-economy and institutional-effectiveness assessment. Senior analysts covering developed and emerging markets across all six inhabited continents.

Global

Deep regional specialisation

DM + EM

East, West, North & Southern coverage

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What this covers

  • Global outlook & spillover
  • Regional integration analysis
  • Trade corridor mapping
  • Country diagnostic reports
  • Peer-economy benchmarking
  • Political economy assessment
  • Institutional effectiveness
  • Regional macro briefings

03 I MONETARY & FISCAL

Monetary & Fiscal Policy

Monetary policy transmission analysis; interest rate and liquidity impact assessment; inflation-targeting framework review; fiscal sustainability and debt dynamics modelling; budget deficit and public-spending efficiency analysis. Built for central-bank and ministry-of-finance dialogues.

Transmission

Pass-through & bank lending channel

Sustainability

Debt & fiscal-risk modelling

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What this covers

  • Monetary policy transmission
  • Interest rate & liquidity impact
  • Inflation targeting review
  • Fiscal sustainability analysis
  • Debt dynamics modelling
  • Budget deficit analysis
  • Public spending efficiency
  • Policy-mix scenario testing

04 I COMMODITIES, FX & SPECIALISATIONS

Commodities, Currency & Other Specialisations

Oil, gas and energy economics; metals, agriculture and strategic commodities analysis; FX market analysis and currency valuation models; balance-of-payments and reserve-adequacy assessment. Plus broader specialisations including industrial policy, trade policy, climate economics, infrastructure / PPP and demographics.

REER

Currency valuation & FX scenarios

External

BoP, reserves & vulnerability analysis

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What this covers

  • Oil, gas & energy economics
  • Metals & commodities analysis
  • FX & currency valuation models
  • Balance of payments & reserves
  • Industrial & trade policy
  • Climate economics
  • Infrastructure & PPP
  • Demographics & long-run drivers

Engagement examples

Selected mandates – banks, central banks and sovereign-linked institutions.

Five representative engagements drawn from our global client book – we also deliver mandates across North America, Europe, Asia Pacific and Latin America. Names redacted; methodology and outputs are illustrative of the work delivered.

Engagement 01 I GDP Forecasting

Medium-term GDP & Growth Scenarios

Medium-term GDP forecasting and growth scenario modelling for a regional banking group in the Middle East – demand- and supply-side decomposition, sectoral contribution analysis and three-scenario outlook (base / upside / stress) to inform credit and asset-allocation strategy.

Region

Middle East

Client

Banking group

Engagement 02 I Regional Outlook

Regional Macroeconomic Outlook – Africa

Pan-Africa macroeconomic outlook for a regional financial institution – country diagnostics, peer-economy benchmarking, regional trade-corridor analysis and integration outlook covering East, West, North and Southern Africa.

Region

Africa

Client

Pan-regional bank

Engagement 03 I Monetary Policy

Monetary Transmission & Credit Conditions

Monetary policy transmission and credit conditions study for a central-bank-linked institution in Africa – interest rate pass-through, bank lending channel analysis, liquidity transmission and inflation-targeting framework review.

Region

Africa

Client

Central bank-linked

Engagement 04 I Oil & Fiscal

Oil Price Stress Testing & Fiscal Risk

Oil price stress testing and fiscal-risk analysis for a sovereign-linked financial institution in the GCC – multiple oil-price scenarios, fiscal break-even modelling, reserve adequacy, debt-sustainability dynamics and sovereign rating sensitivity.

Region

GCC

Client

Sovereign-linked

Engagement 05 I FX & External

Currency Valuation & External Vulnerability

Currency valuation and external-vulnerability assessment for a regional financial market group – REER analysis, current-account dynamics, reserve adequacy benchmarks, external-debt sustainability and FX scenario modelling.

Region

Regional

Client

Financial market group

Engage with us

Your next macro question, scoped within a business day.

Send the question, the geography and the decision context. We come back with a draft scope, methodology and a redacted sample from a comparable mandate.

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GEOGRAPHIES, CONFIDENTIALITY & ENGAGEMENT

Practical answers on scope, methodology and engagement.

Engagements typically begin with a scoping conversation where we agree on the geography, depth of analysis, modelling approach and deliverable format – before any work starts.

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Which geographies do you cover?
Global coverage spanning North America (US, Canada, Mexico), Latin America (Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Peru), Europe (UK, Eurozone core, CEE, Nordics, Turkey), Asia Pacific (China, Japan, India, Korea, ASEAN, Australia), Middle East (GCC, Levant, Egypt) and Africa (East, West, North and Southern). Mandates structured to give clients the local market context that matters – whether covering one country or a multi-region thesis.
Do you build the model, or just the analysis?
Both. We build econometric and forecasting models from scratch (DSGE-light, VAR, ECM, structural macro, fiscal sustainability, FX valuation) and we deliver analysis on top of client-owned models. Every model ships with documentation, validation tests and a methodology note so it can be audited and run in-house.
How do you handle confidentiality with central banks and sovereigns?
NDA on the engagement letter, dedicated team with no cross-engagement conflict in the relevant geography, segregated work environments and full audit trail. For politically-sensitive engagements we operate under tightened protocols including named-team-only access, on-site work where required and document segregation.
What is the engagement model?
Project-based (fixed scope, fixed fee) or retainer (continuous coverage, dedicated team). Most engagements start project-based; many move to retainer once the cadence of macro outputs aligns with the client's policy or asset-allocation calendar.
What forecasting horizon do you work with?
Short-term (quarterly nowcasts & 4–8 quarter outlooks), medium-term (3–5 year forecasts) and long-term (10–20 year structural / potential growth). Most macroeconomic briefings combine all three horizons in a single deliverable so policy and capital decisions can be calibrated against base and stress scenarios.

Have a macroeconomic question on the table?

Send the question, the geography and the decision context. Within one business day we come back with a draft scope, methodology, a redacted sample from a comparable mandate and a fee range.

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REQUEST A SCOPING CALL

Tell us about the macro question.

Geography, decision context (credit, allocation, policy, rating), modelling depth required and timeline. We come back within one business day with a scoping proposal and a redacted sample deliverable from a comparable mandate.

Central-bank-grade confidentiality from first contact
Sample macro / monetary / commodities deliverable on request
Response within one business day

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