ABI Analytics · Research Desk
KSA Macro Watch
Executive Summary
What the numbers say this editionMacro read
The Saudi economy is reaccelerating — oil sector swung back to growth, non-oil engines hold firm, but the fiscal print is widening
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Real GDP growth — oil vs non-oil decomposition
Quarterly YoY %, real GDP at constant prices (2023 = 100)
Headline CPI YoY (%)
Saudi inflation runs structurally below regional and EM peers
SAMA total reserves (US$ bn)
Comfortable cushion supporting the SAR/USD peg at 3.75
Industrial Production Index — YoY %
Monthly IPI (base 2021 = 100); oil dominates the weight
Top 3 improving indicators (YoY)
Momentum leaders across the macro dashboard
Top 3 moderating indicators (YoY)
Where momentum has softened
Growth & National Income
Real GDP, sectoral GVA, expenditure components
Context. Saudi real GDP expanded 5.0% YoY in Q4 2025 — the fastest pace since the post-pandemic rebound. Oil activities (+10.8%) drove the headline as voluntary OPEC+ cuts unwound, while non-oil activities held a steady ~4.3% pace. Government activities dipped (-1.2% Q4) as capex sequencing normalised. IMF projects 4.5% real growth for 2026, well above the 3.3% global benchmark.
GDP at market prices — nominal vs real (SAR Trillion, quarterly)
Both series show underlying expansion; gap is the GDP deflator
GDP YoY growth — real (%)
Quarterly YoY, total real GDP
Private consumption (PFCE, YoY %)
Demand-side — households on a steady consumption uptrend
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (YoY %)
Investment pulse — PIF, Vision 2030 megaproject capex
Govt Final Consumption (YoY %)
Public spending rhythm
GVA composition (FY25, %)
Mining (oil) ~17.5%; non-oil services majority of the economy
Mining & quarrying (almost entirely crude oil & gas) contributes ~17.5% of GDP. Manufacturing adds another 15.8%; non-oil services (finance, retail, transport, government) make up over 60% of value-added — a structural shift Vision 2030 has accelerated.
Saudi non-oil PMI (Riyad Bank / S&P Global) · monthly
Non-oil private sector composite. 50 = neutral. Saudi PMI has held in expansion territory continuously since 2022 — one of the most resilient EM PMIs globally
National income — expenditure components (real, SAR bn quarterly)
Latest 8 quarters by component
| Component | 2024Q1 | 2024Q2 | 2024Q3 | 2024Q4 | 2025Q1 | 2025Q2 | 2025Q3 | 2025Q4 |
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Oil & Energy
Crude prices, production, oil GDP, energy IPI
Oil context. Saudi crude production averaged ~9.7 mb/d in Q3 2025, up from 9.0 mb/d in 2024 as the OPEC+ voluntary 2.2 mb/d cuts began their gradual unwind from April 2025. Arab Light realised ~$72/bbl in Q3 2025; Brent has since rallied above $100/bbl in 2026 amid renewed geopolitical risk. The oil sector contributes ~17.5% of GDP and 56% of fiscal revenue — still the swing factor for the Saudi macro narrative even as Vision 2030 diversifies the underlying engine.
Brent crude & Saudi Arab Light (US$ / bbl)
Monthly average; Saudi Arab Light typically trades at a small discount to Brent
Saudi crude oil production (mb/d)
Quarterly average; voluntary cuts unwinding from Apr-2025
Oil vs non-oil real GDP growth (YoY %)
Quarterly — oil is the volatility, non-oil the trend
Oil GDP nominal (SAR bn, quarterly)
Tracks the price × volume product directly
IPI — oil vs non-oil (YoY %)
Industrial production split: oil takes ~75% of the weight
Oil exports value (SAR bn, quarterly)
Aggregated from monthly merchandise trade
Oil revenue lens — latest snapshot
Q3 2025 fiscal revenue mix & oil-economy reference table
| Indicator | Latest | Prior | YoY | Note |
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Inflation & Prices
CPI headline, group-level, WPICPI YoY & MoM (%)
CPI 2023 = 100; Mar 2026 prints 1.80% YoY — remarkably contained
WPI YoY — producer price pulse
Wholesale price index, base 2014 = 100
CPI — hottest groups (YoY %, latest)
Top inflation contributors by COICOP group, March 2026
CPI — coolest groups (YoY %, latest)
Deflating or weakest categories, March 2026
Inflation heatmap — key groups, last 12 months
YoY % · green = below 2% · amber = 2-4% · red = above 4%
Fiscal & Public Finance
Revenue mix, deficit, debt trajectory
Fiscal context. Saudi Arabia ran a Q3 2025 quarterly deficit of SAR 88.5 bn as oil revenue fell 12.7% YoY. Public debt rose 26.7% YoY to SAR 1.47 tn (~30% of GDP), funded primarily through domestic issuance (+35% YoY) with external borrowing growing more modestly. Vision 2030 mega-project commitments and elevated capex keep total expenditure rising even as oil receipts soften — the deficit is policy-driven, not distress.
Quarterly revenue, expenditure & fiscal balance (SAR bn)
From SAMA Quarterly Bulletin; deficit widened in Q3 2025 as oil revenues softened
Oil vs non-oil revenue mix (Q3 2025, %)
Non-oil revenue share has climbed to ~44% from <30% pre-Vision 2030
Quarterly fiscal balance (SAR bn)
Surplus / deficit by quarter
Public debt — total (SAR bn)
Debt up 26.7% YoY in Q3 2025; ~30% of GDP — still well below EM-A median
Debt composition — domestic vs external (SAR bn)
Domestic ~63% · SAR-denominated sukuk & bonds dominate
Money & Banking
SAMA policy rates, SAIBOR, monetary aggregates, bank creditPolicy anchors & SAIBOR curve
SAMA Repo & Reverse Repo, plus 1M / 3M / 6M SAIBOR; peg dictates broad alignment with US Fed
Loan-to-Deposit ratio (%)
Banking sector liquidity tightness gauge
Monetary aggregates — M1, M2, M3 (SAR bn)
M3 broad money tracks credit creation in the economy
Bank credit to private sector (SAR bn)
Steady ~10% YoY pace driven by mortgage & corporate lending
Bank deposits (SAR bn)
Aggregate deposits in the banking system
Banking sector financial soundness
Capital adequacy, NPLs, profitability — latest quarterly
| Indicator | Latest | Prior Q | YoY ago | Trend |
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Loan-book breakdown — latest (SAR bn)
Q3 2025 snapshot of consumer-facing loan categories
External Sector
Trade, FDI, services, reserves & SAR peg
External context. Saudi Arabia runs a healthy goods-trade surplus driven by oil exports, but a chronic services-trade deficit (transport, travel outflows) keeps the current account close to balance. FDI inflows surged to a record SAR 50.6 bn in Q4 2025 — the strongest single-quarter print in the dataset and an early signal that PIF-led Vision 2030 capital is starting to attract co-investment. Reserves stable at ~$476 bn.
Merchandise trade (SAR bn, monthly)
Exports, imports and trade balance
SAR / USD reference (1986-pegged)
Saudi Riyal pegged at 3.75 to USD — anchored monetary policy
Exports decomposition — oil vs non-oil (SAR bn, quarterly)
Oil ~70% of exports; non-oil exports diversifying gradually
FDI — inflows, outflows, net (SAR bn, quarterly)
Q4 2025 saw a record inflow surge tied to PIF-linked deals
Services trade balance (SAR bn, quarterly)
Persistent deficit; travel exports rising as religious / leisure tourism scales
SAMA total reserves (US$ bn, monthly)
Comfortable cushion supporting the SAR peg
Current account balance (SAR bn, quarterly)
Sourced from SAMA quarterly bulletin narrative; near-balanced overall
Vision 2030 & Diversification
Non-oil engines, employment, tourism, digital, megaprojects
Vision 2030 lens. Saudi Arabia has now hit 93% of its interim Vision 2030 targets — 309 of 390 indicators on track and 100 million annual visitors achieved six years ahead of plan. Non-oil activities now generate ~55% of real GDP, the private sector ~51%, and Saudi female unemployment has fallen to 12.1% from 30%+ pre-Vision. The structural shift is real even as oil remains the cyclical swing factor.
Vision 2030 KPI tracker
Selected headline targets and current progress
Sectoral GVA composition (FY25, %)
Detailed economic activity breakdown
Digital economy share of GDP (%)
Core, narrow and broad measures — 2023 vs 2024
Saudi unemployment trajectory (%)
Headline Saudi rate & female sub-rate — quarterly
Read. Saudi unemployment hit a Vision-target milestone of 7% in Q4 2024 — five years ahead of schedule. Q3 2025 ticked up modestly to 7.5% as labor force participation continues to expand. Female participation has been the single biggest reform success story of the program.
Business Confidence Index — quarterly
GASTAT BCI · overall + sectors (50 = neutral)
FDI trajectory (SAR bn, quarterly)
Vision 2030 set $100 bn / yr target; inflows accelerated in 2025
Tourism & hospitality (CPI proxy)
Restaurants & accommodation services CPI YoY % — demand pulse
Diversification scorecard
Selected Vision-aligned indicators with direction-of-travel
| Indicator | Current | 2016 base / target | Direction | Comment |
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