ABI Analytics · Research Desk
India Macro Watch
Executive Summary
What the numbers say this editionMacro read
India's economy sits in a rare sweet spot — solid growth, cooling prices, abundant reserves
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Headline CPI & RBI tolerance band
Linked CPI series, YoY %, with 4% target and 2–6% tolerance lines
Real GDP growth trajectory
Quarterly YoY growth in real GDP at market prices
IIP growth (YoY %)
Monthly YoY of Index of Industrial Production
FX reserves (US$ bn, weekly)
Comfortable cushion vs external risks
Top 3 improving indicators (YoY)
Momentum leaders across macro dashboard
Top 3 moderating indicators (YoY)
Where momentum has softened
Growth & National Income
GDP, consumption, investment, external
Context. Real GDP growth has settled into a 6.5–7.0% range, above the long-run average for an economy India's size. Private consumption remains the largest demand-side contributor, with capex recovering and government spending front-loaded in an election year. Services retain over half of GVA; manufacturing share has ticked up under PLI.
GDP at market prices — nominal vs real (₹ Trillion, quarterly)
Both series show underlying expansion; gap is the GDP deflator
GDP YoY growth (real, %)
Quarterly YoY from linked real GDP
Private consumption (PFCE, YoY %)
Demand-side — households carry the economy
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (YoY %)
Investment pulse; capex revival since FY23
Govt Final Consumption (YoY %)
Public spending rhythm
GVA composition (FY25, %)
Services dominates; manufacturing share rising
Services contribute ~54% of GVA; manufacturing share has climbed to ~14% from 13% a decade ago as PLI-led capacity ramps up.
National income indicators — summary
Per-capita NNI and GSDP aggregates
| Indicator | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 (PE) | FY26 (AE) |
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Industrial Production
IIP general index, sectoral split, PMIIIP — level and YoY growth
Monthly general index (LHS) and 12-month YoY (RHS)
IIP by sector (latest, YoY %)
Manufacturing, mining, electricity
Manufacturing PMI
S&P Global India Manufacturing PMI — 50 = neutral
Services PMI
S&P Global India Services PMI
Sectoral IIP — reference levels (index, 2011-12=100)
General, manufacturing, mining, electricity and use-based breakdown
| Sub-index | Weight (%) | Latest index | YoY % | Trend |
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Inflation & Prices
Headline, core, food, wholesaleCPI — headline, core, food (YoY %)
Core excludes food & fuel; food is the volatility driver
WPI — all commodities vs manufactured (YoY %)
Industrial goods weighted series
Labour-class CPI (YoY %)
Agricultural and rural labour — MGNREGA benchmarks
CPI-IW (Industrial Worker) index
Base 2016=100 · DA benchmarks
Inflation heatmap — monthly YoY by category
Last 18 months · green = below 4% · amber = 4–6% · red = above 6%
Fiscal Position
Deficit, revenue, expenditure, interest, GST
Scale:
Fiscal context. India targets a fiscal deficit glidepath from ~4.8% of GDP in FY26 to under 4.5% by FY27. Tax buoyancy has held up and capex-led expenditure has been front-loaded; rising interest payments remain a structural pressure as debt-to-GDP glides down only gradually.
Revenue, expenditure & fiscal gap (₹ Trillion, monthly)
Centre's monthly inflows, outflows, and the expenditure-minus-revenue gap
Primary deficit (₹ Billion)
Fiscal deficit minus interest payments
Interest payments (₹ Trillion, monthly)
Structural cost of legacy debt
GST collections (₹ Trillion)
Monthly gross GST revenue
State market borrowing (₹ Billion, monthly)
Gross amount raised by state governments
Money & Banking
Policy rates, yields, monetary aggregates, bank creditYield curve & policy anchors
91D/182D/364D T-Bills, 10Y G-Sec, policy repo
CRR & SLR
Regulatory reserve ratios
M1, M2, M3 (₹ Trillion)
Monetary aggregates, monthly
Currency in circulation (₹ Trillion)
Currency with the public
Bank credit vs deposits (YoY %)
Fortnightly — wedge closes in FY26
Credit-Deposit ratio (%)
Aggregate utilisation of deposits
Bank credit deployment — personal & housing (₹ Trillion)
Monthly outstanding to major sectors
Bank balance sheet snapshot (₹ Trillion)
Credit, deposits, investments in India (fortnightly)
Digital payments (₹ Trillion)
Total monthly digital payment value — retail + wholesale
Commercial Paper outstanding (₹ Trillion)
Short-term corporate funding · monthly · proxy for risk appetite
External Sector
Trade, BoP detail, capital flows, reserves, FXMerchandise trade (US$ bn, monthly)
Exports, imports, deficit
INR / USD reference
Daily RBI reference rate (last 3 years)
BoP — overall net position (US$ mn, quarterly)
Surplus in most quarters; deficit when capital flows reverse
Current Account Balance (₹ Billion, quarterly)
Net of merchandise + services + transfers + income
FDI — inflows vs outflows (US$ mn, quarterly)
Gross direct investment flows
FPI — India vs abroad (US$ mn, quarterly)
Portfolio investment, both legs
Services BoP — travel & remittances (US$ mn)
Key services-sector surpluses
FX reserves trajectory (US$ bn, weekly)
Total FX reserves incl. gold & SDR
NEER & REER (40-currency)
Trade-weighted exchange rate, FY04-05 = 100
Forward premia (%)
1M, 3M, 6M US$ forwards (weekly)
State Deep-Dive
All states & UTs · size, per-capita, growth, fiscal health, GST collections
State lens. India's top-10 states generate ~68% of national GDP; the southern and western cluster leads on per-capita income and growth, while northern and eastern states drive demographic dividend. The interactive controls below let you slice 36 states & UTs, and view monthly GST collections for any combination.
GSDP ranking (FY25, ₹ Trillion)
All 36 states & UTs by nominal Gross State Domestic Product
Per-capita GSDP leaderboard (₹ '000)
Real GSDP growth leaderboard (FY25, %)
State-wise monthly GST collections (₹ Billion)
CGST + SGST + IGST + Cess, domestic collections · source: GSTN monthly state-wise statement (FY18–FY26)
· pick specific states ↓
State × indicator heatmap
Normalised scores · darker = stronger performance on each row (relative among states)
State fiscal & macro table
GSDP, share of India GDP, per-capita, growth, fiscal deficit %, debt % GSDP, dominant sector
| State / UT | GSDP (₹ Tn) | Share | Per-cap (₹'000) | Real Gr % | Fisc Def %GSDP | Debt %GSDP | Dominant sector |
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