ABI Analytics — EV Infrastructure Market Watch

Public Ports 2024

5.4M

+35%YoY (IEA)

EV Sales Share 2024

22%

+4ppYoY

ABI TAM 2025

$50B

ABIest. mid-point

ABI TAM 2030 (Base)

$165B

3.3xvs 2025

ABI TAM 2035 (Base)

$330B

21% CAGR2025–35

Capex 2025–30 (Base)

$280B

ABIscenario model

Executive Summary

Headline takeaways for capital allocators

Market read

Charging is the binding constraint, not a curiosity — and capital is rotating from hardware to platforms

The global public charging network reached 5.4 million ports in 2024 (2.0 million DC fast, 3.4 million AC slow), supporting an EV car parc of 58 million and new sales of 35 million units (BEV+PHEV) — about 22% of new car sales worldwide. The 2024 totals represent a step-change from fewer than 170,000 public ports a decade earlier.

Under IEA Stated Policies, the world is on track to install at least 17 million public ports by 2030 with our base-case extrapolation reaching ~35 million by 2035. Cumulative public-network capex required is in the range of USD 280–660 billion depending on scenario.

ABI Analytics forecasted market size. We size the global EV charging infrastructure TAM — across hardware, software, charging-energy revenues, and site/installation services — at approximately USD 50 billion in 2025, expanding to USD 165 billion in 2030 and USD 330 billion in 2035 in the Base scenario, a 21% CAGR over 2025–35. The Accelerated case reaches USD 460 billion by 2035; the Constrained case reaches USD 215 billion. The mix shifts from hardware-led today (~40%) toward charging-energy revenues (~50% of TAM by 2035) as installed kWh throughput compounds, with software/services holding ~20% but commanding higher multiples. Detail by segment, region, and scenario is in the Market Size & Forecast tab.

The European Union is the highest-quality regulatory environment for new capital, with AFIR enforceable since April 2024. China remains the structural anchor — the NEA Three-Year Action Plan targets 28 million total facilities by 2027. The United States entered 2026 with policy whiplash after a six-month NEVI freeze; private and state-level capital is now the marginal driver.

Capital is rotating away from undifferentiated hardware-only positions and toward integrated platforms with software, energy-management, and site-control wrappers. European private equity deployed USD 781.7 million across 15 EV-charging deals in 2024, led by Electra's USD 332M Series B and Power Dot's USD 108M round.

Global public charging build-out (2015–2024)

DC fast and AC slow ports stacked, vehicles per port falling

Stylized facts. Public-port stock grew from 163k (2015) to 5.4M (2024) at ~41% CAGR. DC fast share rose from <8% to ~37%. China alone added >2.7M ports in 2022–2024.

EV sales share — 2024 (BEV+PHEV)

Top 10 economies vs. World average

EVs per public port — 2024

AFIR ambition is 10:1; lower is better. Log scale.

Read. France (~12:1), Italy (~10:1), and China (~10:1) lead. India (235:1) is the structurally largest addressable market in absolute deployment terms.

Top & bottom — investability scorecard

Five-pillar 1–5 scoring (Demand, Policy, Grid, Returns, Exit)

Global EV Infrastructure Market

Sizing, drivers, and supply-chain map

Context. When private home and workplace points are included, the global installed base is materially larger than the public count; China alone reported approximately 20 million total charging facilities (public + private) in 2025 (NEA). The global public network has grown at a compound annual rate of approximately 41% over the last five years, with DC fast chargers expanding faster than AC.

EV car stock and projection (2015–2030)

Historical (BEV+PHEV) plus IEA STEPS 2030 anchor

Public charging mix shift

DC fast share of total public ports rising

China vs EU Big-4 vs USA — public ports

2015–2024 trajectory (China dominates)

Power-tier mix — 2024 vs 2030 (Base)

AC, rapid (50–150 kW), HPC (150–350 kW), MCS (≥350 kW)

Supply-side leadership — selected charge-point operators

By geography. Sources: company disclosures; trade press

Operator	Geography	Position note
Tesla Supercharger	Global	Largest unified DC fast network; opened to non-Tesla via NACS
EnBW mobility+	Germany / EU roaming	~414,000 charging points (network access)
IONITY	Pan-European HPC	Spark Alliance member; €600M financing in May 2025
Allego	Pan-European	40,000+ points across 16 countries (2026)
Fastned	EU + UK	Spark Alliance member; 1,060 fast charge points / 302 MW
Electra	France-led EU	Spark Alliance member; USD 332M Series B in 2024
ChargePoint, EVgo, Electrify America	United States	Top-3 national CPOs ex-Tesla
State Grid, Star Charge, TELD	China	Together >80% of public charging value (2025)
Tata Power EZ, Statiq, Adani TotalEnergies	India	Leading multi-state CPOs
e-Mobility Power	Japan	TEPCO + Toyota + Nissan + Honda + Mitsubishi JV
Circuit Électrique (Hydro-Québec)	Canada	Largest provincial network

Indicative installed cost per port — ABI Analytics base assumptions

Per-port installed capex by charger type and year (USD)

Charger type	2024 install	2030 install	2035 install	Trend
DC fast (50–150 kW)	$75,000	$65,000	$55,000	Declining
DC ultra-fast (150–350 kW)	$130,000	$110,000	$90,000	Declining
Public AC (Level 2)	$3,500	$3,000	$2,500	Declining
MCS (≥1 MW, HDV)	n/a	$280,000	$220,000	New segment

Regulatory architecture — major regimes

AFIR (EU), NEA China, NEVI (US), PM E-DRIVE / FAME (India)

Region	Key instrument	What it mandates	Status
European Union	AFIR (Regulation (EU) 2023/1804)	150 kW DC every 60 km on TEN-T from 2025; 1.3 kW per BEV / 0.8 per PHEV; contactless payment	In force Apr-2024
China	NEA Three-Year Action Plan	Target 28M total charging facilities by end-2027; +100k high-power urban DC chargers	Issued Oct-2025
United States	NEVI Program (FHWA)	USD 5B authorized; revised guidance Aug-2025; FY26 USD 885M apportionment	Restored Aug-2025
United Kingdom	ZEV mandate + LEVI fund	Reinstated 2025 with PHEV inclusion; LEVI funds local-authority on-street	Reinstated 2025
India	PM E-DRIVE (₹10,900 cr)	~72,000 chargers by FY 2025–26; FAME-III in development	Active

Market Size & Forecast

ABI Analytics — global TAM by segment, region, and scenario (USD billion)

2025 TAM (mid-point)

$50B

Range: $35–60B · ABI Analytics

2030 TAM (Base)

$165B

Accelerated $200B · Constrained $115B

2035 TAM (Base)

$330B

Accelerated $460B · Constrained $215B

CAGR 2025–35 (Base)

21%

Accelerated 25% · Constrained 16%

Definition. Global addressable market for EV charging includes (1) hardware — public and depot/fleet chargers, power electronics, connectors, and cabling; (2) charging-energy revenues — kWh dispensed to public, fleet, and managed-charging customers; (3) software, eMSP & payments — CMS, roaming, payments, fleet management, energy-management platforms; and (4) site & installation services — engineering, grid connection, civil works, and ongoing O&M. Residential AC charging is included only at the hardware layer (BTC sales). Battery cell manufacturing is excluded.

Annual TAM trajectory — three scenarios (USD bn)

2024–2035 · Base / Accelerated / Constrained

Read. Base scenario triples to $165B by 2030 and doubles again to $330B by 2035, driven primarily by charging-energy revenues as installed kWh throughput compounds. Hardware spend peaks in 2030–2031 before easing on price declines.

2030 TAM by region (Base, %)

USD 165B distributed by geography

TAM by segment — 2025 / 2030 / 2035 (Base, USD bn)

Hardware, energy, software/eMSP, services

TAM mix shift — segment share over time (%)

Hardware-led today → energy-revenue-led by 2035

Forecast table — global TAM by segment and scenario (USD bn)

ABI Analytics scenario model · all figures in USD billion · Base unless noted

Segment	2025	2027	2030 (Base)	2030 (Acc.)	2030 (Con.)	2035 (Base)	2035 (Acc.)	2035 (Con.)	CAGR 25-35
Hardware (chargers + power electronics)	20	35	55	68	38	100	140	65	17%
Charging-energy revenues (kWh sold)	17	38	75	90	52	165	230	108	25%
Software, eMSP, payments	8	15	22	27	15	45	62	28	19%
Site & installation services	5	8	13	15	10	20	28	14	15%
Total TAM (USD bn)	50	96	165	200	115	330	460	215	21%

Forecast by region — Base scenario (USD bn)

2030 region share is concentrated in China; long tail accelerates 2030–35

Region	2025	2030 (Base)	2035 (Base)	% of 2030 TAM	CAGR 25-35
China	26	82	155	50%	19%
EU Big-4 (DE+FR+UK+IT)	9	30	60	18%	21%
United States	6	20	42	12%	21%
Japan / Korea	3	9	18	5%	20%
India	1.5	8	22	5%	31%
Latin America	1.5	5	12	3%	23%
Rest of World	3	11	21	7%	22%
Global	50	165	330	100%	21%

Methodology note. ABI Analytics builds the TAM bottom-up using IEA EV stock and charger projections as physical anchors, layered with per-port capex assumptions (Table 2-3 of the report), kWh-per-port utilization assumptions, and weighted blended energy margins by region. Scenario flexes execution intensity (AFIR-grade vs constrained) and OEM rollout speed. Public-charging hardware and energy revenues are the largest line items; software/eMSP commands the highest multiples. See the companion Word report Section 7 for full methodology.

Country Deep-Dives

Top 10 economies by nominal GDP — uniform format

2024 actuals — full snapshot

All figures rounded to two significant digits per IEA convention

Region	Public ports	DC fast	% DC fast	EV car stock	EV sales 2024	Sales share	EVs / port

Public charging points — Top 10 (2024)

Stacked DC fast + AC slow

EV car sales — 2024 (log scale)

Annual flow (BEV+PHEV)

Public charger growth — 2023→2024 (YoY %)

Velocity rather than absolute size

Country profile

Select region for narrative deep-dive

Region:

Thematic Deep-Dives

Cross-cutting themes that drive returns

Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G)

UK leads commercial deployment; Japan leads V2H residential

V2G has crossed from research to commercial scale in the UK (Octopus Power Pack with BYD launched mid-2025), Japan (V2H residential inverters), the Netherlands and California (utility pilots), and is at the cusp of nationwide rollout in China. The economic stack combines wholesale-energy arbitrage, capacity payments, ancillary services, and resilience services.

UK V2G market 2025$0.23B

UK V2G market 2033 (forecast)$1.68B

Implied CAGR28.5%

ISO standard15118-20

Pioneers. Octopus Energy (Power Pack, Kraken platform), Wallbox (Quasar), Fermata, Nuvve, dcbel, Nichicon. Nissan was the first OEM to achieve G99 grid-code compliance for AC bidirectional charging in the UK; the next-generation Leaf (2026) will be V2G-ready off the line.

Solar + Storage + EV (Solar-EV-BESS)

India is the most quantifiable example; transposable to sun-belt geographies

Daytime solar generation peaks while EV charging peaks in the evening — a structural mismatch. BESS captures surplus solar and discharges into peak charging, reducing demand charges and capturing renewable energy that would otherwise be curtailed.

India solar curtailment 20252.3 TWh

Compensation payments₹5,750–6,900 cr

Demand-charge reduction (pilots)40–60%

Charging-cost reduction (pilots)23%

Pilot deployments. Surat, Bengaluru, Delhi (India). Thesis transposes to US Sun Belt, Spain, Australia, Mexico, MENA, parts of Africa.

2024–2025 capital-market events

Selected EV charging transactions and financings

Series B · 2024

$332M

Electra (France)

Eurazeo + Bpifrance · Largest single PE round in global EV charging

Investment · 2025

$250M

Ionna (USA)

BMW–GM–Honda–Hyundai–Kia–Mercedes–Stellantis JV · California build-out

Refinancing · May 2025

€600M

IONITY

Pan-European HPC expansion · Spark Alliance member

Round · 2024

$108M

Power Dot (Iberia/W. Europe)

Antin Infrastructure Partners + Arié SGPS

Acquisition · Aug 2024

$37M

Tritium → Exicom

Hardware acquired out of insolvency · Cost-led consolidation

PE 2024 · Europe total

$782M

15 deals

Europe leads global private-equity volume in EV charging (S&P Global)

Fleet & depot electrification

Most attractive single demand pool — contracted, predictable, depot-based. CaaS platforms with fleet-management software command higher multiples than commodity hardware. Procurement window most active in CA, PNW, Mid-Atlantic, TX (US); LEVI-funded UK; CESL-aggregated India e-bus tenders.

Heavy-duty & megawatt charging

Megawatt Charging System (MCS) crossed from prototype to first commercial corridors in 2025. TCO crossover for medium- and heavy-duty trucks expected in EU and China by 2027–2028. A 12-port MCS truck stop can require 15–20 MW of incoming capacity — grid availability is the binding constraint.

Software, data, and AI

Most capital-efficient layer. Charge-point management systems, roaming hubs (Hubject, Driivz, AMPECO), and payment platforms generate recurring revenue with high gross margins. AI applied to predictive maintenance, dynamic pricing, and energy management. EU Cyber Resilience Act compliance now operational.

Real estate & permitting

Site real-estate is a structural competitive advantage. Gas-station retrofits — pursued by BP, Shell, TotalEnergies, Reliance, Indian Oil — bring planning consents, retail traffic, and grid connections. REIT and triple-net structures being tested for charging-site portfolios. Permitting timelines remain the operational bottleneck.

Standards, interoperability, cybersecurity

Plug & Charge (ISO 15118), OCPP 2.0.1, OCPI 3.0, OpenADR 3.0 form the de-facto interoperability stack outside China. AFIR Article 20 mandates static and dynamic data sharing free of charge from April 14, 2025, in DATEX II format from April 14, 2026.

Forecasts & Capex

Three scenarios anchored on IEA STEPS

Scenario framing. ABI Analytics models three scenarios anchored on the IEA Stated Policies (STEPS) projection of 17.1 million public ports by 2030 and 232 million EV cars in stock. The scenarios flex policy execution intensity, grid investment pace, and OEM rollout speed.

Scenario summary — public ports and capex

Outputs at 2030 and 2035; cumulative capex windows

Scenario	Definition	Ports 2030 (M)	Ports 2035 (M)	Capex 2025–30 ($B)	Capex 2025–35 ($B)
Base	IEA STEPS-aligned: current policy execution	17.1	35.0	~280	~660
Accelerated	AFIR-grade execution everywhere; aggressive grid investment	22.2	50.0	~360	~920
Constrained	Subsidy retrenchment; grid bottlenecks; OEM slowdown	12.8	23.0	~195	~430

Public charger trajectory — three scenarios

Historical (IEA) and ABI extrapolations to 2035

Cumulative capex 2025–2035 by region (Base)

USD billion · ABI Analytics scenario model

By geography — 2030 STEPS bubble (chargers vs. EV stock)

Both axes log; bubble area indicates 2024 sales

Investability Framework

Five-pillar 1–5 scoring (5 = best)

Methodology. Each country and segment is scored 1–5 across Demand (adoption trajectory, fleet pipeline, urbanization, MUD share), Policy (subsidy durability, AFIR-grade mandates, standards convergence), Grid (interconnection lead time, tariff structure, demand-charge regime), Returns (achievable IRR for representative sites at base utilization), and Exit (depth of M&A and infra-fund market). Composite guides geographic allocation; segment scoring guides where in the value chain to invest.

Scorecard — Top 10 economies

Cell shading reflects pillar score (5=dark green, 1=red)

Country	Demand	Policy	Grid	Returns	Exit	Total	Theme

Investability radar — lead markets

China, UK, France, Germany on five pillars

Where to play — by fund type

Highest-conviction segments

Infrastructure (yield-oriented)

EU Big-4 highway HPC concessions, Spark Alliance follow-ons, depot/fleet long-tenor contracts, Tier-1 city DC corridors in China and India.

Growth equity

Software, eMSPs, energy-management platforms, V2G aggregators, integrated CaaS providers in EU/UK/US.

Venture (technology)

Bidirectional power electronics, MCS for HDV, AI-enabled grid-edge controls, charging cybersecurity.

Diligence checklist

Six items investors should stress-test

Site-level demand assumptions: utilization, average kWh per port-day, price elasticity, sensitivity of payback to a 20% utilization shortfall.
Energy stack: power-purchase agreements, time-of-use exposure, demand-charge mitigation (BESS, managed charging, DERMS).
Hardware/software stack: OCPP 2.0.1 / ISO 15118-20 compliance, NACS readiness in the US, uptime track record (>97% for top-quartile networks).
Cybersecurity posture: NIS2 / IEC 62443 compliance, incident-response plan, data-sharing readiness (DATEX II for the EU).
Policy and tariff durability: stress-test against subsidy phase-out and a 25% network-tariff increase.
Real-estate pipeline: site control, planning consents, grid-connection rights, OEM partnerships.

Risk Register

Items investors should price into 2026 underwriting

Risk register

Likelihood, supporting evidence, and mitigation

Risk	Likelihood	Evidence	Mitigation
Policy reversal / subsidy cliff	High	NEVI Feb-2025 freeze; periodic EU recalibrations	Diversify across regulatory regimes
Grid-connection bottlenecks	High	2-4 year lead times in CA, UK, S. Germany	Battery-buffered designs, DERMS integration
Hardware commoditization	Medium	Tritium 2024 insolvency; Wallbox margin pressure	Pivot to integrated platforms with software
Utilization shortfall	High	AFIR/NEVI sites running below underwriting	Deeper site-level diligence
Geopolitical / tariff	Medium	Section 301; EU AS investigations; Brazil import duties	Locally-assembled hardware; multi-region exposure
Cyber / uptime	Medium	NIS2, IEC 62443, US state frameworks	Embedded cyber engineering; audit overhead
EV demand softness	Medium	PHEV inclusion in UK ZEV; ICE longevity in IT/JP	Stress-test BEV-only revenue cases

Sources & References

Open data, regulators, and trade press

Primary data and forecasts

Open international and national statistics

IEA, Global EV Outlook 2025 (revised July 2025). iea.org
IEA, EV Data Explorer 2025 (v1.2, July 2025).
IMF, World Economic Outlook (April 2025) — nominal GDP rankings.

Regulators and government programs

Open regulatory and ministry sources

European Commission, AFIR (Regulation (EU) 2023/1804).
NEA China — Three-Year Action Plan 2025–2027 (October 2025).
U.S. FHWA — NEVI interim guidance (Aug 2025); FY2026 apportionment.
Bundesnetzagentur — Charging-point statistics (Jan 2025).
Ministry of Heavy Industries (India) — PM E-DRIVE.
NITI Aayog — EV Charging Implementation Handbook; Lighthouse DISCOM Programme.
DST India — R&D Roadmap on EV Charging Infrastructure.
U.S. DOT Climate Change Center — EV Charging Climate Strategies.

Trade and capital-markets reporting

Open or freely accessible industry sources

S&P Global Market Intelligence — Global PE deals in EV chargers (Dec 2024).
Zapmap — UK EV Industry Review 2025 and Outlook 2026.
Solar Media — EV Infrastructure News Report 2025.
Solar Media India — 2026 Industry Report: Integrated EV Charging in India.
Octopus Energy — Power Pack tariff and BYD bundle launch (June 2025).
Electrive — Tritium acquisition; IONITY refinancing; UK V2G launches.
Utility Dive — Ionna USD 250M California announcement (2025).
Fastned — Spark Alliance launch press release (April 2025).
India Brand Equity Foundation (IBEF) — Electric Vehicle Industry in India.
NC Clean Energy Technology Center — NEVI program status (June 2025).
InsideEVs — NEVI charger deployment in 2025.
AMPECO — AFIR Compliance Guide for CPOs.
Roland Berger — EV Charging Index 2025 (public country insights).
ICCT — EU charging-infrastructure needs for BETs (Oct 2025).